Is the Ocean Going to Be Okay? What 2025’s Data Actually Shows

Ocean Health in 2026

Part 1 of the Ocean Worth Saving series

By William Drumm, underwater photographer and ocean ambassador

People who follow my work know I spend as much of my life as possible underwater. Shooting marine life across the Pacific, the Caribbean, the open ocean. Coral reefs at dawn. Whale sharks from below. Manta rays at night in Kona.

I get asked one question more than any other: is the ocean going to be okay?

It is the right question. And the honest answer is not a simple yes or no. The data tells a story that is darker in some places and more hopeful in others than most people realize. So here it is, not filtered through optimism and not filtered through doom. Just the numbers, with both sides weighted equally.

The State of Coral Reefs in 2025: Bleaching at 84%

Coral reefs are the canary in the ocean’s coal mine. They cover less than 1% of the ocean floor but support at least 25% of all marine species. Everything from the fish populations that feed billions of people to the coastal protection that shields hundreds of millions of people from storm surges depends on reef health.

The numbers are stark.

Between January 2023 and May 2025, bleaching-level heat stress impacted 84% of the world’s coral reefs. This was the most extensive and severe bleaching event in recorded history, spanning 82 countries. Live coral cover has halved since the 1950s, with a 14% decline recorded in just nine years from 2009 to 2018.

These are not projections. These are measurements of what has already happened.

But the same research that documents the decline also points clearly to what works. Reefs with reduced local human impact, lower fishing pressure, better water quality, and less coastal runoff showed measurably greater resilience to bleaching events and faster recovery afterward.

The ocean responds to care. The question is whether we provide it consistently enough and at sufficient scale.

Conservation Wins: Green Sea Turtles and North Atlantic Right Whales

Set against the reef data, two stories stand out as proof that conservation can work when it is sustained and enforced.

Green Sea Turtles: From Endangered to Least Concern

Green sea turtles were upgraded on the IUCN Red List from Endangered to Least Concern in 2025. This milestone took decades of nesting beach protections, bycatch reduction, and international legal safeguards. Their population has grown by around 28% since the 1970s.

That is an entire generational arc of protection translating into a measurable, verified recovery.

North Atlantic Right Whale Population Trends

The North Atlantic right whale, perhaps the most endangered large whale species in the world, has shown slow but genuine growth for four consecutive years. 384 individuals were confirmed in 2024. In 2025, not a single right whale death was recorded.
For context: there are fewer right whales alive than people who attended the annual North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium meeting this year. Every single individual matters. And they are, carefully and slowly, coming back.

The 30×30 Goal: Why Only 8% of the Ocean Is Protected

Only 8% of the world’s ocean is currently under any form of marine protection.

The international target set under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework is 30% by 2030. That gap, between 8% and 30%, in five years, is one of the defining conservation challenges of this decade.

The other warning sign in the global data: 40% of the UN’s ocean health targets under Sustainable Development Goal 14 are currently moving in the wrong direction. Only 20% are on track. SDG14, Life Below Water, is among the furthest adrift of all global sustainability goals.

These numbers are sobering. But the direction of travel on ocean governance has shifted in the last few years in ways worth noting.

The High Seas Treaty Explained (and Why 2025 Was a Turning Point)

In 2025, the High Seas Treaty, formally called the Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction Treaty, entered legal force after reaching 60 country ratifications.

This is the first legally binding international agreement to protect marine life in the 60% of the ocean that lies beyond any nation’s territorial waters. It took two decades of advocacy. It represents one of the most significant advances in ocean governance in history.

The Vaquita: A Species That Was Supposed to Be Gone

The vaquita, the world’s smallest and rarest cetacean, a porpoise found only in the Upper Gulf of California, recorded new calves for the third consecutive year in 2025. Once reduced to fewer than 10 individuals, its population has stabilized.

This is a species that was widely expected to be functionally extinct within years. It is not. That matters not just for the vaquita but for what it tells us about the outer edges of what conservation can do when enforcement is serious and sustained.

What the Ocean Health Data Tells Us to Do

The picture that emerges from all of this is not hopeful in a comfortable, feel-good way. It is hopeful in a precise and demanding way.

The ocean is not going to be okay on its own. But it is resilient enough to recover when we remove the specific pressures that are destroying it.

Coral bleaches because ocean temperatures rise. Ocean temperatures rise because of fossil fuel emissions. The connection is direct and documented. But reefs with better managed fisheries and cleaner water hold on longer and recover faster. Local action and global action are both necessary. Neither replaces the other.

Species recover when we protect their nesting beaches, reduce their bycatch, and give them time. Green turtles and right whales prove this works across timescales measured in decades, not years.

The High Seas Treaty and the 30×30 goal prove that international cooperation on ocean protection is achievable when enough governments commit to it.

None of this happens without the people who care enough to keep showing up. Scientists, conservation organizations, governments, and the divers, photographers, and storytellers who make the ocean real for people who have never been underwater.

Why I Keep Photographing the Ocean

I photograph the ocean because I believe that images change what people care about. You cannot protect what you cannot see. And most of what is happening to the ocean is invisible to the people making the decisions that affect it.

I have photographed coral reefs that have bleached since I first shot them. I have watched fish populations thin in places I used to think were pristine. I have also watched a manta ray move over me in the dark in Kona and felt the scale of something that has existed in this ocean for millions of years and is, so far, still here.

The data does not give us permission to give up. It tells us exactly where to focus. That is what honest information is supposed to do.

The ocean is worth saving. Every data point, positive and negative, confirms that. The question has never been whether it is worth saving. The question is whether we will.

Frequently Asked Questions About Ocean Health in 2025

Is the ocean’s health getting better or worse in 2025?

The picture is mixed. Coral reefs are in the worst recorded bleaching event in history, with 84% of reefs impacted between January 2023 and May 2025. At the same time, several species are recovering, including green sea turtles, North Atlantic right whales, and the vaquita porpoise. The data shows the ocean responds to sustained protection but is under serious pressure where protection is absent.

What is the High Seas Treaty?

The High Seas Treaty, formally called the Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to protect marine life in international waters, the 60% of the ocean outside any country’s jurisdiction. It entered legal force in 2025 after reaching 60 country ratifications and took roughly two decades of advocacy to pass.

How much of the ocean is currently protected?

Only 8% of the global ocean is under any form of marine protection as of 2025. The international target under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework is 30% by 2030, known as the 30×30 goal.

Are coral reefs recovering?

Coral reefs globally are not yet recovering. Live coral cover has halved since the 1950s, with a 14% decline between 2009 and 2018 alone. However, reefs with strong local protections, low fishing pressure, and good water quality have shown measurably greater resilience to bleaching and faster recovery, which suggests targeted protection works.

Are whale populations increasing?

It depends on the species. The North Atlantic right whale population has grown for four consecutive years, with 384 individuals confirmed in 2024 and zero recorded deaths in 2025. Other species, particularly humpbacks in many regions, have also rebounded significantly since the end of commercial whaling. Many populations remain well below historical baselines.

What is the 30×30 ocean goal?

30×30 refers to the international goal of protecting 30% of the world’s land and ocean by 2030. For the ocean, this means closing the gap from the current 8% protection level to 30% in five years. It was adopted under the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.

What can individuals do to help ocean conservation?

The data points to four high-leverage actions: support organizations enforcing marine protected areas, reduce personal fossil fuel consumption (which drives ocean warming and bleaching), eat less seafood and choose seafood from sustainably managed fisheries, and pressure elected officials to ratify and fund international ocean agreements like the High Seas Treaty.

Sources

• ICRI  Fourth Global Coral Bleaching Event, 2025.
• IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, 2025.
• New England Aquarium North Atlantic Right Whale Consortium, 2025.
• UN Sustainable Development Goals Report, 2025.
• Sea Shepherd Global Positive Waves, 2025.

Read Next in the Ocean Worth Saving Series

• Part 2: Water Bankruptcy (coming soon)
• Part 3: The State of Shark Populations (coming soon)
• Part 4: Whale Populations: Recovery and Risk (coming soon)